Rockets vs. Thunder odds, prediction: NBA Cup picks, best bets

The secret is out.Almost all bettors are aware of a specific NBA betting trend.

But has the market adjusted enough? Or maybe too much?The newly-formed NBA Cup has clearly generated a more competitive atmosphere than conventional regular-season games.That has translated to higher defensive effort and fewer foul calls, causing Unders to cash at a noticeable rate. As the teams descend on Las Vegas, we absolutely must handicap the games through that lens.

Including last year, nine of the 11 quarterfinal, semifinal and championship games have cashed the Under.On Saturday, the Houston Rockets face the Oklahoma City Thunder for the third time this season.The previous totals closed 220 and 221.5 with both games flying Over by at least 11 points.

In a vacuum, one would assume the next meeting warrants a higher posted total.However, the NBA Cup factor supersedes all instincts and norms.Oddsmakers opened at 215.5, even though the two previous meetings landed at 233 and 235.

Nonetheless, professionals still bet it Under, moving it to 212.5, as of Friday afternoon.That is a remarkable adjustment. “My initial thought was that these totals were flying Under due to shooting variance,” The Ringer betting expert Raheem Palmer told Only Players, highlighting the brutal 3-point percentages in those specific games.

“However, it was clear that officials were letting teams play a bit more physical throughout the quarterfinal rounds.”Veteran sports bettors focus more on numbers than they do teams.At some point, there is value on the Over.

But there’s also a chance the total has not adjusted enough, still offering value on the Under. “I feel late to the party not betting the Under on the opener.But I’m also hesitant because I rely on my model so much,” Palmer said, sharing that he is currently undecided because his computer model projects 214.I am similarly torn.

The market has clearly adjusted.It’s hard to ignore the 9-2 trend when there is a tangible reason,...