Electoral Wishcasting

The Democrats’ 2024 defeat had many causes, starting with inflation and immigration.In today’s newsletter, I’ll examine another item on the list: candidate quality.This subject might seem backward-looking, given that neither of this year’s candidates, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, is likely to be the party’s presidential nominee again.

But it’s relevant to the party’s future.The party will probably help its chances in 2028 and beyond if it can become more forthright — and less wishful — about its own leaders.The Harris selectionThe first key moment in this story occurred in the summer of 2020, when Biden was choosing a running mate.Biden was then 77, almost as old as Ronald Reagan was when he left office.

The likelihood that Biden would serve two terms was lower than with most nominees, which gave extra significance to his choice of a vice president: Biden and his aides were anointing an heir.That fact offered reason to pick a strong general-election candidate.The United States, after all, is a closely divided country where the two parties pursue starkly different agendas on abortion, climate change, immigration, taxes and more.

Modern presidential elections tend to be close and to have high policy stakes.Even so, Biden and his team seemed to put little weight on the future when they chose Harris.Yes, she had big strengths.

She had been a successful attorney general and shone as a senator during contentious hearings.She was also the country’s most prominent Black female politician near the height of the #MeToo and Black Lives Matter movements.

Harris would be a historic vice president.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Tim...