Hawks vs. Suns prediction: NBA picks, odds, best bets Thursday

The Phoenix Suns have covered the point spread in only 14 of 37 games, which is an NBA-worst .378 cover percentage.However, with their new starting lineup, they are both 1-1 straight up and against the spread (ATS). That presents a handicapping conundrum.I cannot just blindly tail or fade a trend, especially when a notable change occurs.First off, there is market correction.

Specifically, a roulette wheel’s probability and odds do not change.However, a sports team’s power ratings are fluid and thus a one-sided trend is likely to correct itself eventually. Second, and more importantly, a full dissection and inventory is needed.Phoenix’s issues go well beyond the point spread struggles.With a 16-19 record, the All-Star cast of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal has not thrived.Injuries have played a role but they still do not mesh well when healthy, which is why coach Mike Budenholzer decided to move Beal and Jusuf Nurkic out of the starting lineup and bring them off the bench. “They’re a team you almost draw a line through until their rotations settle and they figure out what they are,” VSiN host and betting analyst Jonathan Von Tobel told Only Players via text.

“Beal is an absolute nightmare.He makes their net rating 11.1 points worse every 100 possessions he’s on the floor.” The new lineup initially provided a spark in the first game, as the Suns won at the Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points.

Beal scored 25 points on 10-for-15 shooting in 30 minutes.However, the Suns returned to their flawed ways the very next night, losing to the Charlotte Hornets as 4.5-point road favorites.Beal finished with 10 points on 5-for-13 shooting in 31 minutes. “I just think he’s overrated as a player at this point in his career, both in terms of his ability to make a positive impact on the court and in terms of his impact on the betting markets,” professional bettor Carl Sack of KillerCappers.com told Only Players via email.

“Ultimately, they’...