Pick against the spread for Sundays and Mondays Wild Card Round action
The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Sunday’s and Monday’s Wild Card Round slate.Denver’s defense is too good to be this big of an underdog on Sunday afternoon.Denver closed the year as the No.
6 overall team in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), while the Bills were No.4.
There’s good reason to be skeptical of a rookie quarterback in the playoffs, especially on the road.Rookies are 5-17 straight up on the road in the playoffs, but I look at that stat as slightly misleading.That record includes injury fill-ins Skylar Thompson and Connor Cook as well as an injury exiting Brock Purdy and Mac Jones, making the record a slightly less embarrassing 5-13.
Still if either Nix or Jayden Daniels win on the road on Sunday, they will be the first rookies to win on the road in the playoffs since Russell Wilson.Still, Nix isn’t going to be relied on to make big plays; their defense does plenty of the work for him.
If we are omitting the Broncos’ dominant performance over the Chiefs’ backups in Week 18, Denver is allowing the sixth least yards per carry in the NFL from Week 12-17.They also have the third most interceptions during that same time span (seven).
The Bills, who have an elite offense across the board, shouldn’t have a cakewalk in-store this weekend.They’re allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 28th in the NFL (Weeks 12-17), and their run defense is just slightly above average in that same time span, according to FTN’s Stathub.They still win, 27-20, but we’re taking the points.Philadelphia is at full health coming into Sunday’s perhaps best matchup of the weekend.
Normally, the Packers would be the bet here, as they’re ranked No.3 overall in DVOA while the Eagles are No.
5 overall.I just see this matchup as a nightmare for Green Bay on top of some poor injury luck to close the season.Christian Watson is out with a torn ACL, and Jordan Love looks to have a hand injury.
There’s no telling how that will a...