How Many Federal Worker Resignations Would Be a Lot?

When the federal Office of Personnel Management first proposed a “deferred resignation” package to induce federal workers to quit last week, Elon Musk circulated an estimate that the offer could lure 5 to 10 percent of the government’s work force to leave.That estimate so far looks like an overshoot.By midday Friday, with the original Thursday deadline to accept the offer now paused by a federal judge, more than 65,000 workers had planned to resign, said McLaurine Pinover, a spokesperson for O.P.M.

That number — which could still rise further amid legal uncertainty — represents less than 3 percent of all 2.3 million federal workers, excluding the military and Postal Service.For perspective, about 150,000 federal workers, or 7 percent, voluntarily leave the government every year.The scale of resignations submitted as of Friday — offered in exchange for seven months of pay and benefits — would be the equivalent of five months’ worth of departures, many of which might have happened this year anyway.In other words, the federal government is an enormous work force that already experiences sizable turnover every year.

In addition to workers who leave the government to retire or simply to quit, about another 50,000 to 60,000 are terminated every year for disciplinary or performance reasons, or because their appointments or funds expired.A small number — around 3,400 — die each year while employed by the government.

All these departures are typically replaced by about 240,000 hires each year.President Trump and Mr.Musk are also aiming to reduce the work force by squeezing this second group — new employees — through a hiring freeze for large portions of federal workers.

In terms of reducing total head count, the hiring freeze could matter more than encouraging resignations....