Why all eyes are on Egypt during the Israel-Hamas cease-fire and how its own Gaza problem could soon emerge

As the Israel-Hamas cease-fire arrives at its pivotal second phase, Egypt has emerged as the unlikely focal point for the next stage of the multifront war that has consumed the Middle East since Hamas’ Oct.7 attack.

Although most of the world has focused on Gaza over the past 16 months, the ongoing Near Eastern conflict has revealed the stark fragility of Israeli-Egyptian relations.President Trump’s declaration earlier this month that the US would “own Gaza” has revived fears in Cairo that Egypt will ultimately bear the brunt of solving the “Gaza” problem.Those fears may be forthcoming — a forced transfer of thousands of Gazans into Egyptian territory.

This is the last thing Egypt wants, so much so that President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi refused to accept an invitation by Trump to visit Washington if the agenda included his Gaza refugee proposal.Still, Egypt is not stepping away from the negotiating table.Along with Qatar, Cairo has played a crucial role in the hostage deals in order to showcase its commitment to ending the war.

That is, as long as they can keep their border with Gaza closed. Yet at the same time, Egypt is taking no chances.The past few weeks have seen a significant Egyptian military buildup in the Sinai peninsula, signaling military action against Israel may be in the works. Newly appointed Israeli Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter indicated that Egypt has constructed military bases in Sinai “that can only be used for offensive operations, for offensive weapons.” All of this signals to Israel — and a restive US — that the war drums could be beating.Ties between Israel and Egypt have never been warm since the two signed the Camp David Accords back in 1979.

But they’ve grown incrementally worse since the beginning of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s latest return to office back in December of 2022.Cairo is no fan of Netanyahu’s right-wing government.

Discord between Cairo and Jerusalem has only intensifi...