Germans Are Voting. Heres What to Watch For.

Germans vote on Sunday in a rare snap election that has taken on outsized importance as the new Trump administration threatens European countries with tariffs, cuts them out of negotiations over Ukraine, and embraces an authoritarian Russia.The election for Parliament was called after Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s unpopular and long-troubled three-party government collapsed in November.Seven months earlier than scheduled, the voting now falls in the midst of Europe’s struggle for strong leadership and as it recalibrates its relationship with the United States.Despite the effort by politicians and countless volunteers to bring excitement to the race during the short, dark winter campaign, polls never much shifted.

Friedrich Merz and his conservative Christian Democratic Union have a comfortable lead.The hard-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, is expected to place second, riding on voter dissatisfaction with mainstream parties and fears of migration.Polls show it is likely to have its best showing ever.Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats, which eked out a victory in 2021, are expected to come in third, just ahead of the Greens.

The Social Democratic party, the oldest party in Germany, may be poised for its worst showing since it was banned by the Nazis.But uncertainties abound.Here are some things to watch for:Two’s Company, Three’s a Crowd...