How a Demographic Doom Loop Helped Germanys Far Right
The Alternative for Germany party came in second in federal elections on Sunday, doubling its vote share from four years ago, in the strongest showing for a German far-right party since World War II.Some segments of the party, known as the AfD, have been classified as extremist by German intelligence.How could that happen in Germany, a country whose history has taught a bitter lesson about the dangers of right-wing extremism?Many experts have pointed to the role of immigration, particularly the surge of Muslim refugees from Syria and other Middle Eastern countries in the mid-2010s, which has persuaded many people to abandon the long-dominant parties of the center-left and center-right.But new research suggests an additional factor.
The AfD posted its biggest wins in the former East Germany, where young people have been moving away from former industrial regions and rural areas to seek opportunities in cities.Those poorer regions have entered into a demographic doom loop: a self-reinforcing cycle of shrinking and aging populations, crumbling government services and sluggish economic growth, which has created fertile ground for the AfD.
And because the far-right party is strongly anti-immigration, its rise has created pressure to cut immigration levels — which further exacerbates the problems of a shrinking, aging population.Similar trends have the potential to play out in much of the developed world.The left-behind regionsFor years there has been a very strong correlation between the level of out-migration and the level of AfD support, particularly in the eastern part of the country, where the party came in first in most constituencies on Sunday.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.
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