Intel-sharing pause hurts US leverage with Russia as Ukraine loses ground in Kursk operation

WASHINGTON — The US pause in military aid to Ukraine and sharing intelligence with the war-torn country has led Russian forces to step up missile strikes to an intensity rarely seen since the February 2022 invasion, hastening Kyiv’s retreat from Moscow’s Kursk region and damaging hope of leverage in potential cease-fire talks.Moscow has launched more than 80 missiles at Ukraine since Wednesday’s intelligence-sharing pause — after relying almost solely on artillery and drone strikes for at least a week prior — and more than 1,550 attack drones since the aid pause on March 3.During the same period, Ukraine’s forces have increasingly lost territory in Kursk, and a Ukrainian commander told The Post last week that Kyiv’s forces would be back in Ukrainian territory by March 19.While Ukraine’s Kursk operation has been struggling since January, the Trump administration’s pullbacks since the contentious meeting between President Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on Feb.28 have heavily hindered its ability to continue their fight to keep the Russian territory for possible negotiations with Moscow, according to analyses by the Washington-based Foundation for Defending Democracy and Institute for the Study of War.“My sense is that these pressures were building,” said FDD’s Russia Program director John Hardie.

“I don’t think [the pause on intelligence sharing] was necessarily the trigger, but I have heard some troops there in Kursk say that that’s been a challenge cut off of intelligence.” Since the pauses began, Ukraine has not struck Russian forces in Ukraine with HIMARS rockets, which have served as an important deterrent to Moscow’s advances since the US first offered them to Kyiv roughly two years ago.That is likely due to two reasons, both tied to the recent US policy changes, ISW’s Russia team lead George Barros told The Post on Monday.For one, Kyiv may be saving its current supplies of HIMARS munitions for...