Dont be fooled by special elections Democrats are still in trouble
Break out the big blue hype machine: Democrats and their media allies are swooning over Tuesday’s special election results in Wisconsin and in Florida.They’re saying this is the start of the turnaround, a sign that people are rebelling against President Donald Trump and Elon Musk.A party badly in need of a jolt got one, and best of all they got it the old-fashioned way: By beating up on the big bad orange man.It’s a great story.There’s only one problem: It isn’t true.Oh, it’s true that Republican candidates ran well behind Trump in the key races.
Florida’s two new GOP congressmen, Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine, won by 14 and 15 percentage points in districts that Trump carried by 37 and 30 points, respectively.Brad Schimel, the GOP-backed candidate for Wisconsin Supreme Court, also trailed Trump by double digits.Trump carried the Badger State by about a point in 2024, while Schimel lost by 10.The problem with the Democrats’ tale is that they’ve willfully misunderstood why these outcomes occurred.The Democratic coalition has shifted a lot in the Trump era.
The party used to represent less-educated voters who were less engaged in politics, while Republicans tilted to the elites.Now that’s reversed: Democrats do best with highly educated voters who are highly engaged with politics, the people who vote all the time.Today, it’s the GOP coalition that’s tilted toward voters who only come out for general elections.The lower the turnout, the more likely it is that Democrats will overperform compared to their presidential result.The Florida seats are proof of this.The composition of the electorates for the two specials was between five and 10 points less Republican than it was last November.Adjusting for that reality substantially reduces the degree of Democratic overperformance.Tuesday’s electorates likely tilted even further away from the GOP when we consider registered independents.
These voters lean toward one party, but are much less engaged...