2025 March Madness Final Four predictions: Duke vs. Houston, Florida vs. Auburn

I, for one, am thankful for the tariffs.It puts my worst ROI in 15 years in perspective.Duke (-5.5) over HoustonThe Cougars are no fun to face.That has been the case for nearly a decade, since Kelvin Sampson brought Houston back to prominence with physicality, ferocity and a defense designed to sap all joy from the game.

But defense is not enough to carry the Cougars to their first championship.When the shots inevitably go cold, Houston’s slow-paced, low-possession system allows no room for error in a single-elimination game.The Cougars were ousted in the 2019 Sweet 16 after scoring 58 points.

They lost in the 2021 Final Four after being held to 59 points in a 19-point loss to eventual champion Baylor.They shot under 30 percent in 2022, scoring 44 points in an Elite Eight loss.

They shot under 38 percent in a 14-point loss to Miami in the 2023 Sweet 16.And last year, Houston was limited to 51 points in a Sweet 16 loss to Duke.The rematch finds Duke with even greater advantages.

The most glaring difference is the presence of the nation’s best player (Cooper Flagg), plus a pair of projected lottery picks (7-foot-2 Khaman Maluach and Kon Knueppel).The Blue Devils enter with the dominance and swagger of yore, winning 31 of their past 32 games (only one win by fewer than six points), with the most-highly efficient offense of the KenPom era (beginning with the 1996-97 season).Houston — which was nearly upset by Gonzaga and Purdue in the NCAA Tournament — went 1-3 against top-five offenses this season, but Duke’s top-five defense should cause greater concern for the Cougs.

Last week, the Blue Devils refused to allow Alabama, the fastest-paced/highest-scoring team in the nation, to get clean looks, holding the Tide to their second-lowest point total of the season (65), 26 points below their season average.Houston’s offense shouldn’t fare any better, ranking 282nd in the nation in 2-point shooting percentage and 313th in free throw rate, with an overrelia...