UFC Vegas 105 predictions: Full card picks for Josh Emmett-Lerone Murphy

The UFC is back at the warehouse for UFC Vegas 105. Thirteen fights await us on cable TV, this time on ESPN, with the prelim bouts beginning at 6 p.m.ET and the main card on the same channel at 9 p.m. It’s a prime-time slot for the UFC this weekend at UFC Apex, where it hopes to showcase its product with some impressive finishes. Six of the 13 fights are expected to end inside the distance, with most of the fights early in the card projected to go to all the way.

If you’re looking to build your parlay card on decisions, do it early. Here are my UFC Vegas picks: The best punching power in the UFC’s featherweight division is clear; it’s Emmett. Emmett isn’t just a tattooed savage, he is a technically sound striker who rocks his opponents every time he steps into the octagon. He faces Murphy, who is a -340 favorite on Saturday. It’s a lot of respect for Murphy, who certainly has the speed advantage and can kick Emmett’s multiple-time surgically repaired knees regularly. But that isn’t enough for me to back the favorite. We’ve seen Emmett knock opponents out cold with single shots, some of the most brutal stuff we’ve ever seen in the octagon.If you stand with him, you’re asking for trouble. Now, if you’re able to outwork him with cardio, grappling, and footwork, more power to you. I just don’t see Murphy as that guy, and when he feels the power that’s coming back at him, he could shell up and eat a shot he’s not comfortable taking. Pick: Back the underdog here, as Emmett is a fine bet at +265 on Caesars. This fight is a bit curious to me as a co-main event.

Other fights could have been showcased here. Sabatini is a wrestler first, having some fun fights against Jonathan Pearce and Lucas Almeida. Typically, you’d think a wrestler is a decision fighter — and you’d be right with that assumption — but Sabatini is always looking to win by TKO or submission with his grappling. Against Brito, he might have a tough time g...