Duke vs. Houston NCAA Final Four prediction: Under the bet

Throughout this NCAA postseason, Duke and Florida have been the national championship betting favorites, and they are expected to face off in Monday’s title game.Nevertheless, according to KenPom.com, the top two teams will actually meet in the second semifinal on Saturday.The highly regarded analytics site ranks Houston as the second-best team behind the Blue Devils.The Cougars own the nation’s top defensive unit and the offense ranks 10th, which is consistent with previous seasons that ultimately ended with heartache.

Nevertheless, this year’s offense does seem to have a better ability to avoid lengthy scoring droughts.They will certainly need that against a Duke squad that ranks fifth defensively and No.1 offensively.

The Blue Devils are understandably the odds-on favorite to cut down the nets but first must go through a physical and stout Houston defense.I have a 37-22 against the spread record in this Post sports section and am backing both defenses by playing Under 137.I fully expect this game to be played in the high 50s or low 60s for each team.There is one school of thought that suggests that Duke might try to push pace to generate offense before Houston’s elite defense can set up in the halfcourt.

But that is not really its identity.Despite scoring 85 points against Alabama, the Blue Devils only scored six fast break points.In the Sweet 16 win over Arizona, only five of their 100 points came on the fast break.Now, Duke did generate 17 such points in each of first two tourney wins, but that’s because their opponents shot miserably from the field.

I do not anticipate that type of offensive destruction by Houston.The Cougars rank 347th in average length of possession with 19.6 seconds, and that increased to 20.1 seconds in conference play.Kelvin Sampson is an elite coach and their possessions will be measured and tactical, trying to generate quality shots.Jon Scheyer and the Blue Devils should adopt a similar approach, given they rank 106th in ...