For Republicans, Tariffs Pose a Risk Like No Other

The time after a presidential election can feel like a moment of clarity.The results, after all, are finally in.But over the last two decades, the post-election period hasn’t offered any clarity at all about the future of American politics.

The winning party repeatedly convinces itself it has won a mandate, or even a generational advantage.The shellshocked losers retreat into internal debate.

And then just a few months later, it becomes clear that the next phase of American politics will not be what the winners imagined.This week, the next two years of American politics began to come into focus, and it does not look like a MAGA or Republican “golden age.” The special House elections in Florida and the Supreme Court election in Wisconsin confirmed that Democratic voters were not, in fact, stunned into submission by last November’s election.More important, President Trump’s sweeping tariffs — and the economic downturn that may follow — have created enormous political risks for Republicans.In one key respect, the elections on Tuesday were not significant: They do not suggest that Democrats solved any of the problems that cost them the last election.

Instead, they mostly reflect the party’s advantage among the most highly informed, educated and civically engaged voters.This advantage has allowed Democrats to excel in low-turnout elections throughout the Trump era, even as he made enormous gains among the disaffected and disengaged young, working-class and nonwhite voters who show up only in presidential elections.Still, Democrats won’t have to face many of those disaffected and disengaged voters until 2028.

The results last Tuesday thus offer a plausible preview of the next few years of elections: major Democratic victories, including in next year’s midterm election.There might not have been anyone marching in pink hats, and congressional Democrats might have been “playing dead,” but the Democratic special election strength looks just as larg...