What Is Trumps Tariff Endgame? Recession Fears Grow.

ImageWorst offenders Broad new tariffs on U.S.trading partners went into effect a few hours ago, including huge penalties for those on President Trump’s “worst offenders” list.

Up next: the threat of additional levies on pharmaceutical imports.The moves have hit jittery investors in the gut yet again, with bonds, Asian and European stocks and oil sharply lower on fears for the global economy.Business leaders and policymakers are left to wonder: Is the president serious about cutting deals — or is the endgame to usher in a new protectionist era of global trade?Trump continues to signal that more pain is ahead.“Sometimes you have to mix it up a little bit,” the president said on Tuesday, in remarks that framed his tariff policy as an eventual boon for American manufacturing and the economy, if also “somewhat explosive” for markets.He also appears intent on ratcheting up his conflict with China, including a 104 percent tariff on Chinese imports.

(China threatened an additional 50 percent duty on U.S.imports.) The tit-for-tat measures by Washington and Beijing are threatening collateral damage for global supply chains.Speaking of explosive market developments …S&P 500 futures point to another volatile day.

On Tuesday left the benchmark index a whisker away from a bear market.Assessing the sharp sell-off, JPMorgan Chase’s recession indicator spiked, as did the Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge.

Just in: Delta Air Lines reported first-quarter results, saying “growth has largely stalled” on economic uncertainty, and declined to give a full-year outlook.Of increasing concern for many is the sharp sell-off in Treasury bonds and notes since Friday, which is bad news for American borrowers.“I haven’t seen moves or volatility of this size since the chaos of the pandemic in 2020,” Calvin Yeoh, a portfolio manager at the hedge fund Blue Edge Advisors, told Bloomberg.

Keep an eye on Wednesday’s 10-year Treasury bond...