The US-Iran denuclearization talks could be big for Trump and bad for Vladimir Putin

In a nearly unprecedented move, the Trump administration met directly with Iran on Saturday to hold denuclearization talks. Currently, Iran is amassing enough enriched uranium to make one nuclear weapon a month.      Previous administrations would have never dreamed of direct talks with a pariah state like Iran so early in a new administration. They would have favored a slower technocratic process of preliminary proposals, proffers, and, above all else, insulating the principals from any blame in the event the talks failed.   Not Trump. He has never been much for bureaucratic foreplay. He’s bored by conventions and processes.And as we saw after the Saturday meeting, his instincts may again be right. Trump’s message to Iran is simple.

You have no cards.The walls are closing in. Abandon your nuclear program, or else. To most observers, this appears to be the use of hard power, or the threat of it, by someone with a bigger gun. Two US strike forces — two US carriers, 18 warships — and 30% of our stealth bomber fleet have moved into the region.

Israel — which successfully struck Iran in 20 locations in October 2024 and took out most of Iran’s air defenses — has also been itching for another strategic strike. But what most of the commentariat is missing is the three-dimensional strategy Trump seems to be employing on the global chess board. The headline today is the use of hard power (aerial strikes), but the more important story may be a brilliant use of soft power complementing the threat of force that, if successful, will even further isolate Iran.The story of this chess game starts, interestingly enough, with the armistice negotiations in Ukraine. Right now, Trump is positioned to secure a peace agreement that ensures a reshaped Ukraine’s sovereignty and security with US “economic boots” on the ground, notwithstanding Vladimir Putin’s expected gamesmanship. If Trump pulls this off, it will allow the US and the West to ...